Exit polls prediction

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Exit polls predict majority for BJP in Jharkhand, hung assembly in J&K
Omar Abdullah's ouster and poor showing by Congress are being predicted unanimously
BS Reporter  |  New Delhi  
December 20, 2014 Last Updated at 22:46 IST
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Polling for 87 Assembly seats in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) and 81 in Jharkhand concluded on Saturday. Several exit polls predicting an unprecedented majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Jharkhand and a hung Assembly in J&K.

In J&K, the Mehbooba Mufti-led People’s Democratic Party (PDP) may emerge as the single-largest party, with the
 BJP a close second, the exit polls showed. If one goes by the exit polls, J&K could be a test case for the coming together of Opposition parties against the BJP. All exit polls predicted the ouster of the Omar Abdullah-led National Conference government in the state, as well as a poor show by the Congress in both J&K and Jharkhand.

The counting of votes is scheduled for Tuesday.

On Saturday, the Election Commission said the overall voter turnout in J&K was 65 per cent, the highest in 25-years and 4 per cent more compared to the 2008 Assembly elections. Elections for the J&K Assembly are held every six years.

For Jharkhand, the voter turnout stood at 66 per cent, the highest so far.

Almost all exit polls predicted a majority for the BJP in Jharkhand, as well as its best performance in J&K so far. No single party has recorded a majority in Jharkhand since the state was created in 2000.


Jharkhand Exit Poll results

Resuts in 2009
Today's Chanakya
C Voter
Axis-APM CNN-IBN
ABP News-Nielsen
India Today Cicero
BJP+
23
61
37-45
37-43
54
45
Congress+
21
4
3-7
4-6
9
9
JMM
18
12
15-23
10-14
10
17
JVM
11
2
4-8
12-16
5
(included in others)
Others
8
2
7-13
7-14
3
10

India TV-C Voter predicted the BJP would top the vote share in J&K (26 per cent) and win 27-33 seats, while the
 PDP would win 32-38 seats, with a vote share of 25 per cent. The findings of other exit polls were on similar lines.

In J&K, the Jammu region accounts for 37 members of the Assembly, Kashmir 44 and Ladakh 4. The exit polls suggest the BJP is unlikely to make any headway in the Kashmir region.

For J&K, the BJP had launched ‘Mission 44+’, with an aim to install the state’s first Hindu chief minister.

Today’s Chanakya predicted a landslide victory for the BJP in Jharkhand, estimating the party’s tally at 61.

Others such as ABP News-Nielsen and India TV-C Voter predicted the BJP would touch the majority mark of 42.
J&K exit poll results

Results in 2008
C Voter
Axis-APM CNN-IBN
PDP
21
32-38
36-41
BJP
11
27-33
16-22
National Conference       
28
8-14
9-13
Congress
17
4-10
9-13
Others
10
2-8
6-10


Today’s Chanakya predicted a landslide for the BJP in Jharkhand. It said the party might win 61 of the 81-seats. Others like ABP News – Nielsen and India TV-C Voter predicted that BJP will achieve the majority mark of 42 seats.
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