6 possible scenarios for government formation - TIMEcube 6 possible scenarios for government formation | TIMEcube

6 possible scenarios for government formation

Leave a Comment

J&K: The 6 possible scenarios for government formation

Curious people and National Conference (NC) loyalists were seen outside the house trying to gain knowledge about the latest political happenings and whether NC could be part of new dispensation.


SRINAGAR: On Thursday, the residence of former chief minister Omar Abdullah witnessed a flurry of activities. Curious people and National Conference (NC) loyalists were seen outside the house trying to gain knowledge about the latest political happenings and whether NC could be part of new dispensation.
A large number of media persons were also seen patiently waiting for Omar hoping to question him about his New Delhi visit.
Omar, instead, straightaway drove in his two-storey residence in the afternoon after returning from the Capital without talking to the media.
And after a few seconds he tweeted, “All the camera crews outside my home are going to be very disappointed when I leave Srinagar on Friday having met no one ‘ interesting’ here.”
Meanwhile, the Fair View Bungalow of the Muftis, which is up the road, gives a deserted look indicating the looming crises in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The fractured verdict has now made it impossible for any political party to form government without entering into coalition with any other party.
The PDP also has an option to enter into alliance with the BJP having 25 members.
Though NC leaders say they have conveyed to the PDP of unconditional support at the highest level, reports of NC leaders meeting BJP leadership has sent the PDP into the shell.
Most of the leaders of the PDP including its chief spokesman are tight lipped about political situation.
The Congress party which has 12 members is trying to take advantage of it and is luring the PDP towards it.
"Certain power hungry  political groups and individuals are trying to subvert the democratic verdict of the people in the just concluded election to the J&K Legislative Assembly,” Prof. Saiffuddin Soz, president J&K Pradesh Congress Committee said.
“As a common knowledge and perception, a suave, experienced and forward-looking politician like Mufti Mohammad Sayeed should be allowed to lead a coalition government in the state with the support of other likeminded parties and groups,” Soz said indicating Congress was ready to support him.
Congress statement has come at a time when both Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and general secretary Ram Madhav are in Jammu holding deliberations with BJP leaders.

  SCENARIO 1

PDP and BJP join hands.
PDP with 28 MLAs and BJP with 25 can work out a rotational chief minister arrangement. Or, the PDP can have chief minister for six year term while the BJP settles for deputy chief ministership.
The PDP hinted that it is in favour of providing good governance.
But BJP will insist on rotational CM to achieve its aim of a Hindu CM for J&K.

   SCENARIO 2

PDP takes support from the Congress which has 12 MLAs. It will still be short of the half-way 44 seat mark as support of four more MLAs would be needed. The Congress and the PDP have been partners in the past.
They can keep the BJP out of power. It will have to then woo some of the independents to reach the magic mark.

 SCENARIO 3

BJP is supported by the NC with its 15 MLAs.
They can also get support of the two MLAs of People’s Conference of Sajjad Lone. It can allow BJP to have its chief minister.
The NC can work out a deputy chief ministership for itself or a seat in Rajya Sabha and a berth in the union cabinet.
Constitutional propriety demands that the single largest party PDP will be invited by the Governor first, which means PDP gets first shot. If this were to fructify, then BJP gets chief ministership while NC gets DCM and perhaps a Cabinet post at the centre.

SCENARIO 4

The PDP, NC and the lone People’s Democratic Front MLA Hakeem Yasin comes together to keep BJP out of power. It will be a highly unstable option as the PDP and the NC are bitter political rivals. Looks an impractical situation. The Congress can also join the grand alliance of “secular” parties.

SCENARIO 5

A minority government of PDP is formed with outside support of the BJP. It will be difficult for the government to function in a fractured house.

 SCENARIO 6

The BJP can rule by proxy through governor’s rule.
The most unlikely option as of today as all efforts are underway by the parties to work out a combination.


Next ArticleNewer Post Previous ArticleOlder Post Home